Declan M. Hurley

Most polls indicate that President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the national popular vote. The RealClearPolitics average  shows that Biden would command 48.3% of the popular vote compared to 42.0% for Trump, a deficit of 6.3 points. However, enthusiasm levels are telling a different story. In Emerson College's April poll , which shows Trump behind Biden by six points (48% for Biden to 42% for Trump), 64% of declared Trump voters are "very" or "extremely" enthusiastic about supporting the president's reelection bid. Only 45% of Biden's supporters say the same, and 55% count themselves "mildly" excited or not excited at all about the former vice president's candidacy. Only 37% of Trump voters count themselves "mildly" excited or unexcited. Enthusiasm data from Emerson Biden's numbers could be depressed by progressives within the Democratic Party, Emerson Col

Per USA Today , New York State " conducted an antibody test of a sample of 3,000 people in recent days ." New York found that 21.2% of the people tested in New York City and 13.9% of the people statewide contracted the coronavirus at some point, as indicated by the presence of antibodies. However, the infection rate was only 3.6% outside of New York City and its immediate suburbs. If we extrapolate these data onto the state at large, we find that: The Empire State, with a population of 19.45 million , has seen a total of 2,703,550 people infected. This figure increases the denominator (i.e., the number of those infected) so significantly that it reduces the state's death rate to 0.5%. That said, Governor Andrew Cuomo believes there "are many deaths that have happened at home and not immediately tallied because they didn't occur at a hospital or a nursing home," which could increase the numerator. New York City, a city of 8.4 million, has seen 1,780,0

The Monmouth University Polling Institute just released their latest poll of New Jersey. It shows President Donald Trump and GOP challengers to Cory Booker losing big, which is to be expected in such a deep-blue state. However, the poll shows the Republicans leading in the competitive congressional districts they will need to win in order to claw back their House majority. While Democrats nominally lead 50-38% in the New Jersey generic ballot, this is a reduced margin compared to 2018, when they won 60-39%. More importantly for the Republicans, the Democrats are struggling outside of safe districts (i.e., districts that have little to no chance of flipping parties). Monmouth reports, The race for New Jersey’s 12 U.S. House seats produces a more mixed outlook for Democrats. Statewide, the picture looks positive with 50% of voters saying they will back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 38% who will support the Republican. This margin is slightly narrower

My electoral map, which can be found here , pegs North Carolina as a "lean Republican" state. This prognostication is based primarily on the 2016 results: President Donald Trump won it then by 3.6 points, 49.8% to 46.2% , nearly clearing a majority. That is a landslide relative to Trump's razor-thin margins in other swing states (e.g., Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin). However, it is important to use new data to ensure the accuracy of predictions. I have been keeping my eye on the polls, and two surveys just came out of the Old North State. One is from Public Policy Polling (PPP), which leans left, and the other is from Harper Polling, conducted for the right-leaning Civitas Institute. In PPP's poll, Trump is down one: 48% for Biden and 47% for Trump. However, Trump's favorability rating is better than Biden's. 45% have a favorable impression of Trump compared to 50% who have an unfavorable perception (net -5). Biden is at 39% favorable and 50%

Last Tuesday, Wisconsin held an election for a seat on the state Supreme Court. To the excitement of the left and to the dismay of the right, the liberal candidate beat the conservative incumbent soundly. The Wisconsin results ( New York Times ) With 99% of precincts reporting , 55.3% of the electorate went for liberal Jill Karofsky, who was endorsed by presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The remainder, 44.7%, cast their ballots for conservative Daniel Kelly, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump. This ten-point thumping is a poor showing for the Republican Party in a state Trump needs to win in 2020. However, the picture is muddled somewhat by the unusual nature of the election. Stephanie Saul of the New York Times explains some of the factors underpinning the results: "Low turnout with no G.O.P. presidential contest; coronavirus fears; Dems' emphasis on early and absentee voting." The numbers bear out Saul's first pronouncement, at the very le

The U.S. currently assesses taxes on capital gains, which are profits generated via productive investment. The tax structure is progressive, meaning that higher levels of income are taxed at progressively higher rates. For a single person, capital-gains income up to $39,375 is taxed at a zero-percent rate, income between $39,376 to $434,550 is assessed at 15%, and income over $434,550 is levied at a rate of 20% . First and foremost, I would like to consider the morality of capital-gains taxation. Let me first assert that investment constitutes an individual putting his money on the line for a venture that may succeed or fail. There are plenty of ventures soliciting investment: private corporations, whether the investment occurs via purchases of publicly-listed stock or direct infusions of liquidity; the U.S. government, via Treasury bonds; hedge funds; gold brokerages; the average shyster; etc. I would also assert that without investment, few ventures would have the liquidity necess

There has been some debate in recent days over whether the coronavirus originated in China or whether it sprouted in Europe. The latter theory has been fueled by recent headlines such as this one from Spectrum News: " Coronavirus Hit NYC in February, Likely Came From Europe ." I did some digging for concretes on when and where the virus started. I found a story from  The Guardian , which leans left but is (thankfully) divorced from the rancor of American politics. The writer, Graham Readfearn, walks us through several scientific studies. It appears that the scientific community has settled that the coronavirus started with bats. The next step is a subject of some controversy, but scientists believe that the coronavirus "jumped" from the bats to pangolins and, from there, to humans. The Guardian says, "Analysis of the first 41 Covid-19 patients in medical journal the Lancet found that 27 of them had direct exposure to the Wuhan market. But the same analysis

It is my persuasion that China, under its current communist system of governance, is a renegade bad-faith actor along the lines of Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. Rather than testing missiles, the government perpetuates an Orwellian surveillance state (to repress their citizenry, particularly the Uighurs) and economic warfare (which powers their efforts to unseat the United States as the world's predominant economy). Meanwhile, the Chinese Communist Party protests insinuations they are culpable for the outbreak of the coronavirus, suggesting their own incompetence. Empirical evidence points me toward the former view -- the view that China is an Orwellian bad-faith actor. As Michael Auslin of  National Review  reports , Chinese officials knew of the seriousness of the pandemic as early as December, yet waited weeks to begin restricting travel, allowing millions of Wuhan residents to visit relatives elsewhere in the country and abroad for Lunar New Year celebrations, spreading