Declan M. Hurley

Those writing President Donald Trump’s political obituary assume that former Vice President Joe Biden will net a key swing state: Michigan. While a Democratic sweep of their 16 electoral votes would reduce Trump’s chances of victory, such an outcome is not predetermined and the state looks increasingly unpredictable. The Trafalgar Group's Michigan results Consider the most recent poll from the Trafalgar Group, which has Trump behind Biden by less than a point in the Wolverine State: Biden commands 46.2% of the vote to 45.3% for Trump. 4% are undecided and 4.5% will back a third-party candidate. While Biden nominally leads, the margin of error is 2.95%. In other words, the Trafalgar Group poll informs us that the state will be closely fought either way. It will either be a Trump state by a narrow margin or a Biden state by a narrow margin. This is consistent with the latest poll from CNBC/Change Research, which has Biden up by two points, but it stands in stark contrast to...

In a feature published in Wednesday's paper, the Wall Street Journal pinpointed the six swing states that will be the most competitive in 2020: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Conveniently, CNBC and Change Research just released poll results from these six states. Former Vice President Joe Biden leads in three states and President Donald Trump in two. The candidates are tied in one. Here are the full results: Arizona: Trump 45%, Biden 44% ( Trump +1 ) Florida: Biden 48%, Trump 45% ( Biden +3 ) Michigan: Biden 48%, Trump 46% ( Biden +2 ) North Carolina: Biden 46%, Trump 45% ( Biden +1 ) Pennsylvania: Trump 50%, Biden 46% ( Trump +4 ) Wisconsin: Trump 45%, Biden 45% ( tie ) The margin of error for the poll is plus/minus 1.56%. That means that in Wisconsin, a result of Trump 46.56% vs. 43.44% (or vice versa) is within the realm of possibility. This is why most political analysts do not see polls showing leads of...