Trump Favored in Pennsylvania
The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania is Biden +3.7, with polls ranging from Trump +2 (InsiderAdvantage) to Biden +7 (Quinnipiac). I predict that President Donald Trump will narrowly win the state. Consider Muhlenberg College’s most recent poll for the Morning Call , which pegs Biden’s support level at 49% and Trump’s at 44%. 2016 election in PA Consider also that Muhlenberg’s final 2016 poll had Clinton up 48% to 42%, a six-point lead. Trump ended up winning the state by a little less than a point. The cross-tabs tell us why Muhlenberg was wrong: they found Trump only marginally leading males (45% to 43%), whites (49% to 42%), and independents (41% to 38%). The final results for these categories, per CNN exit polls , were 57% to 40%, 56% to 40%, and 48% to 41%, respectively. Thus, I am skeptical of some of the findings from Muhlenberg’s most recent poll, which shows that Trump’s lead is 49% to 43% among men and 52% to 44% among whites. Further, Muhlenberg has Trump