The Anatomy of CNN's Latest Poll
CNN's latest poll has former Vice President Joe Biden up by five points: Biden commands 51% compared to 46% for President Donald Trump. This may seem bad for Trump, but Biden was ahead by 11 points in CNN's April poll. Biden's six-point decline could be a function of a multitude of factors: the Tara Reade accusations, the Michael Flynn situation, or, most innocuously, a shift in the polling sample. I do find this disclaimer from CNN interesting: "Among the entire sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 26% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party." Compare this sample to data from Gallup , which finds that Democrats and Republicans command roughly an equal share of the population -- about 30% each. CNN notes, "Biden's edge currently rests on the larger share of voters who identify as Democrats." If they had polled equal amounts of Republicans and Democrats, Trump would h...