The Anatomy of CNN's Latest Poll

CNN's latest poll has former Vice President Joe Biden up by five points: Biden commands 51% compared to 46% for President Donald Trump. This may seem bad for Trump, but Biden was ahead by 11 points in CNN's April poll. Biden's six-point decline could be a function of a multitude of factors: the Tara Reade accusations, the Michael Flynn situation, or, most innocuously, a shift in the polling sample.

I do find this disclaimer from CNN interesting: "Among the entire sample, 34% described themselves as Democrats, 26% described themselves as Republicans, and 40% described themselves as independents or members of another party." Compare this sample to data from Gallup, which finds that Democrats and Republicans command roughly an equal share of the population -- about 30% each.

CNN notes, "Biden's edge currently rests on the larger share of voters who identify as Democrats." If they had polled equal amounts of Republicans and Democrats, Trump would have led the poll. Nonetheless, the poll found a smattering of good news for Trump in other areas:

  • People trust Trump on fiscal policy: 54% believe Trump would do a better job than Biden at handling the economy. Biden commands 42% on the same metric. (Biden leads Trump 51% to 45% on handling the coronavirus, though voters consistently rank the economy as the most pressing issue.)
  • Trump commands independents: Independents break for Trump 50-46%; this is reminiscent of 2016.
  • Trump leads among older voters and has a small gap among the young: Trump is leading among people aged 45 and up by six points, though he is behind among seniors. Among younger voters (those aged less than 45), Biden only leads by three points -- 49% to 46%. This could be a function of Bernie's young base refusing to flock toward Biden. 
  • Trump leads in the battlegrounds: Trump leads in battleground states -- defined as "Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin" -- by seven points: 52% to 45%.

In RealClearPolitics's aggregations, Trump trails Biden in the national popular vote by 4.5 points and in the swing states by various margins (with one exception, North Carolina).

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