Florida Swings Toward Trump, Bucking National Trends
After a slight post-convention bounce, President Donald Trump is generally slipping in the 2020 battlegrounds. However, Florida—the quintessential swing state—is emerging as a bright spot for the Trump campaign. Biden's slipping support in Florida (RCP) In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump commands 47% of the vote in Florida compared to 47.8% for former Vice President Joe Biden—a deficit of eight-tenths of a percentage point. This is a major improvement from July 24th, when Trump trailed by 8.4 points in the Sunshine State. The surface-level reason for Trump's improvement in Florida is a slight change in polling methodology. Pollsters have shifted from surveying registered voters to likely voters as we rapidly approach November 3rd. Trump's Florida bounce can also be attributed to his improving numbers among Hispanic voters. While exact comparisons are not possible given the adjustment in methodology, Quinnipiac University's polling offers a solid case stud