Florida Swings Toward Trump, Bucking National Trends

After a slight post-convention bounce, President Donald Trump is generally slipping in the 2020 battlegrounds. However, Florida—the quintessential swing state—is emerging as a bright spot for the Trump campaign.

Biden's slipping support in Florida (RCP)

In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump commands 47% of the vote in Florida compared to 47.8% for former Vice President Joe Biden—a deficit of eight-tenths of a percentage point. This is a major improvement from July 24th, when Trump trailed by 8.4 points in the Sunshine State.

The surface-level reason for Trump's improvement in Florida is a slight change in polling methodology. Pollsters have shifted from surveying registered voters to likely voters as we rapidly approach November 3rd.

Trump's Florida bounce can also be attributed to his improving numbers among Hispanic voters. While exact comparisons are not possible given the adjustment in methodology, Quinnipiac University's polling offers a solid case study. In their survey published on July 23rd, Trump trailed by 13 points among Florida's registered voters (51% to 38%). Among Hispanics, Biden led by 17 points: 50% to 33%. However, Quinnipiac's September 3, 2020 poll of likely voters shows a race within the margin of error (48% for Biden vs. 45% for Trump). What drove the president's remarkable turnaround? Hispanic voters, who are now breaking for Trump 45% to 43%.

The Quinnipiac polling is consistent with other surveys showing that Biden is slipping among Florida Hispanics. This emerging deficit has triggered a shift in Biden's campaign strategy: "The Biden campaign told POLITICO that this week, for the first time, it has bought more advertising on Spanish-language television than Trump's campaign and has beefed up its Hispanic-outreach staff."

I have a hunch that Trump will outperform the Florida polls and win the state on November 3rd. Consider that Trump's support level was slightly underestimated in 2016 Florida polling and that polls incorrectly predicted losses for the Republican gubernatorial and senatorial candidates in 2018.

If Trump holds Florida and the rest of his 2016 states, he can lose two of his three Great-Lakes states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—and still win reelection.

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