Trump Favored in Pennsylvania

The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania is Biden +3.7, with polls ranging from Trump +2 (InsiderAdvantage) to Biden +7 (Quinnipiac). I predict that President Donald Trump will narrowly win the state. Consider Muhlenberg College’s most recent poll for the Morning Call, which pegs Biden’s support level at 49% and Trump’s at 44%.

2016 election in PA

Consider also that Muhlenberg’s final 2016 poll had Clinton up 48% to 42%, a six-point lead. Trump ended up winning the state by a little less than a point. The cross-tabs tell us why Muhlenberg was wrong: they found Trump only marginally leading males (45% to 43%), whites (49% to 42%), and independents (41% to 38%). The final results for these categories, per CNN exit polls, were 57% to 40%, 56% to 40%, and 48% to 41%, respectively.

Thus, I am skeptical of some of the findings from Muhlenberg’s most recent poll, which shows that Trump’s lead is 49% to 43% among men and 52% to 44% among whites. Further, Muhlenberg has Trump trailing by 54% to 26% among independents. Biden may very well command 54% of independents, but independents are a “silent Trump voter” constituency and the president’s support level will certainly exceed 26%.

Roughly adjusting for Muhlenberg’s prior polling error among males alone, their top-line would be Trump 49.8%-Biden 48.6%.* Biden has no such slack among women, as he already leads that constituency 55% to 40%. Further, this calculation does not take into account the fact that 82% of Trump voters are very enthusiastic about supporting their candidate, compared to just 48% of Biden voters, which could have effects on turnout.

To recapitulate, my analysis of this poll, along with Trump’s impressive enthusiasm levels, makes me confident that the president will win Pennsylvania. There are certainly other factors at play, and I will be sure to write more on this matter ahead of Election Day.

* Math: 57/45 = 1.267x Trump among men; 40/43 = 0.93x Biden among men; 1.267 x 49 = 62.08; 0.93 x 43 = 39.99; make equal to 100 by multiplying each by 0.9797; new result: 60.8% Trump, 39.2% Biden. And then add (0.49 x (60.8-49)) to 44 (Trump’s support level), with 0.49 being the proportion of men, and subtract (0.49 x (43-40)) from 49 (Biden’s support level).

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