A Cold, Hard Look at the Wisconsin Data
Last Tuesday, Wisconsin held an election for a seat on the state Supreme Court. To the excitement of the left and to the dismay of the right, the liberal candidate beat the conservative incumbent soundly.
With 99% of precincts reporting, 55.3% of the electorate went for liberal Jill Karofsky, who was endorsed by presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The remainder, 44.7%, cast their ballots for conservative Daniel Kelly, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump. This ten-point thumping is a poor showing for the Republican Party in a state Trump needs to win in 2020.
However, the picture is muddled somewhat by the unusual nature of the election. Stephanie Saul of the New York Times explains some of the factors underpinning the results: "Low turnout with no G.O.P. presidential contest; coronavirus fears; Dems' emphasis on early and absentee voting."
The numbers bear out Saul's first pronouncement, at the very least: 924,151 people voted in the Wisconsin Democratic primary and 1,549,446 people voted overall. In other words, 59.6% of the electorate participated in the Democratic primary.
Let us consider the following hypothesis: The 59.6% segment was drawn to the polls by the primary contest, drowning out the Republicans who did bother to vote.
Wisconsin has an open-primary system, meaning that independents and Republicans could have theoretically voted in the Democratic primary. That said, 55.3% of the general-election electorate voted for Karofsky; 59.6% voted in the Democratic primary. 1,549,446 times 0.553 is 856,844, and 924,151 less 856,844 is 67,307. Assuming that all actual Democrats voted for Karofsky and that all of those who did not vote in the Democratic primary voted for Kelly, Kelly received the votes of only 67,307 people who voted in the Democratic primary.
Therefore, it can be said that the Democratic primary was a boost for Karofsky. She had the benefit of nearly a million voters who were bound to be in her camp.
This should not be interpreted by conservatives as a mulligan. The fact that the Democrats were able to turn out 924,151 primary voters amid the coronavirus pandemic is evidence of the party's sky-high enthusiasm level. This suggestion is reinforced by recent Republican losses in Kentucky, Louisiana, and the Pennsylvania suburbs, the slim gubernatorial victory in Mississippi notwithstanding. There are only so many times the GOP can say, "It was all the candidate's fault," the common refrain after the Democrats dispatched Republicans Matt Bevin (Ky.) and Eddie Rispone (La.).
Think of all the Wisconsin Democrats who stayed home for health reasons but will be ready and able to cast a ballot for Biden in the fall. Trump cannot fall into the Hillary Clinton trap of taking the Badger State for granted; he will have to fight tooth and nail.
That also holds true for every state in the union, Louisiana and Kentucky included.
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| The Wisconsin results (New York Times) |
With 99% of precincts reporting, 55.3% of the electorate went for liberal Jill Karofsky, who was endorsed by presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The remainder, 44.7%, cast their ballots for conservative Daniel Kelly, who was endorsed by President Donald Trump. This ten-point thumping is a poor showing for the Republican Party in a state Trump needs to win in 2020.
However, the picture is muddled somewhat by the unusual nature of the election. Stephanie Saul of the New York Times explains some of the factors underpinning the results: "Low turnout with no G.O.P. presidential contest; coronavirus fears; Dems' emphasis on early and absentee voting."
The numbers bear out Saul's first pronouncement, at the very least: 924,151 people voted in the Wisconsin Democratic primary and 1,549,446 people voted overall. In other words, 59.6% of the electorate participated in the Democratic primary.
Let us consider the following hypothesis: The 59.6% segment was drawn to the polls by the primary contest, drowning out the Republicans who did bother to vote.
Wisconsin has an open-primary system, meaning that independents and Republicans could have theoretically voted in the Democratic primary. That said, 55.3% of the general-election electorate voted for Karofsky; 59.6% voted in the Democratic primary. 1,549,446 times 0.553 is 856,844, and 924,151 less 856,844 is 67,307. Assuming that all actual Democrats voted for Karofsky and that all of those who did not vote in the Democratic primary voted for Kelly, Kelly received the votes of only 67,307 people who voted in the Democratic primary.
Therefore, it can be said that the Democratic primary was a boost for Karofsky. She had the benefit of nearly a million voters who were bound to be in her camp.
This should not be interpreted by conservatives as a mulligan. The fact that the Democrats were able to turn out 924,151 primary voters amid the coronavirus pandemic is evidence of the party's sky-high enthusiasm level. This suggestion is reinforced by recent Republican losses in Kentucky, Louisiana, and the Pennsylvania suburbs, the slim gubernatorial victory in Mississippi notwithstanding. There are only so many times the GOP can say, "It was all the candidate's fault," the common refrain after the Democrats dispatched Republicans Matt Bevin (Ky.) and Eddie Rispone (La.).
Think of all the Wisconsin Democrats who stayed home for health reasons but will be ready and able to cast a ballot for Biden in the fall. Trump cannot fall into the Hillary Clinton trap of taking the Badger State for granted; he will have to fight tooth and nail.
That also holds true for every state in the union, Louisiana and Kentucky included.
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