Analyzing New York Infection Counts

Per USA Today, New York State "conducted an antibody test of a sample of 3,000 people in recent days." New York found that 21.2% of the people tested in New York City and 13.9% of the people statewide contracted the coronavirus at some point, as indicated by the presence of antibodies. However, the infection rate was only 3.6% outside of New York City and its immediate suburbs.

If we extrapolate these data onto the state at large, we find that:

  • The Empire State, with a population of 19.45 million, has seen a total of 2,703,550 people infected. This figure increases the denominator (i.e., the number of those infected) so significantly that it reduces the state's death rate to 0.5%. That said, Governor Andrew Cuomo believes there "are many deaths that have happened at home and not immediately tallied because they didn't occur at a hospital or a nursing home," which could increase the numerator.
  • New York City, a city of 8.4 million, has seen 1,780,000 people infected.
  • Outside of New York City proper, 922,750 people have contracted the coronavirus. However, only 32.8% of the tests statewide were conducted outside of New York and its suburbs, and out of that 32.8%, only 3.6% of the tests came back positive.
  • Thus, upstate New York -- which includes medium-sized cities like Buffalo, Rochester, and Albany -- has seen only 224,666 infections from the coronavirus.

The takeaway: 92% of New York State's cases come from downstate, despite upstate having over 40% of the population. This shows that the compactness of the city and its immediate surroundings allowed for a surge in cases.

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