Does the Road to a GOP House Pass Through New Jersey?

The Monmouth University Polling Institute just released their latest poll of New Jersey. It shows President Donald Trump and GOP challengers to Cory Booker losing big, which is to be expected in such a deep-blue state. However, the poll shows the Republicans leading in the competitive congressional districts they will need to win in order to claw back their House majority.

While Democrats nominally lead 50-38% in the New Jersey generic ballot, this is a reduced margin compared to 2018, when they won 60-39%. More importantly for the Republicans, the Democrats are struggling outside of safe districts (i.e., districts that have little to no chance of flipping parties). Monmouth reports,

The race for New Jersey’s 12 U.S. House seats produces a more mixed outlook for Democrats. Statewide, the picture looks positive with 50% of voters saying they will back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 38% who will support the Republican. This margin is slightly narrower than a Monmouth University Poll conducted at this same point in the 2018 cycle. Democratic candidates held a statewide 19-point generic House vote advantage in April 2018 (54% to 35%), a margin that held into Election Day when Democrats won the cumulative statewide House vote by 21 points (60% to 39%). 
The warning sign for Democrats is that this difference from two years ago is primarily due to a shift in voter preferences in the state’s most competitive districts. Democrats have a solid 56% to 31% lead in the seven safest districts – including six held by a Democrat and one held by a Republican – which is nearly identical to their 27-point advantage in April 2018 (57% to 30%). However, voters are almost evenly divided between the Republican (46%) and Democratic (45%) candidates in the five most competitive districts (i.e., CDs 2, 3, 5, 7, 11). This time two years ago, Democrats held an aggregate 7- point edge in these districts (49% to 42%). In November 2018, Democrats ended up winning the cumulative safe seat vote in New Jersey by 33 points (66% to 33%) and the competitive seats by 9 points (54% to 45%).

Because of redistricting in North Carolina, it is inevitable that the Republicans will lose two seats in the Old North State. However, if the GOP can pick up a seat or two (or five) in New Jersey, they can compensate for their losses and attempt to make Kevin McCarthy speaker of the House.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Anatomy of a Biased Poll

Image
YouGov, CBS News's pollster of choice, released a poll showing that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 10 points: 52% to 42%. Their sample consisted of 957 registered voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3.6 points. According to YouGov, Trump leads Biden by 10 points (47% to 37%) among independents and by 88 points (93% to 5%) among Republicans. So, why is he behind by 10 points overall? The sample—i.e., the group of people that YouGov polled—was roughly 41% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 27% independent. Compare YouGov's sample to the actual breakdown of the electorate: 41% independent, 31% Democratic, and 26% Republican. YouGov's numbers, when adjusted to fit reality, indicate a much tighter race: 45.9% Biden to 44.4% Trump (my math is below). President Donald Trump The massive over-representation of Democrats in YouGov's sample is a textbook example of why conservatives and impartial observers reflexively discount public-opinion...
Read more

Trump Favored in Pennsylvania

Image
The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania is Biden +3.7, with polls ranging from Trump +2 (InsiderAdvantage) to Biden +7 (Quinnipiac). I predict that President Donald Trump will narrowly win the state. Consider Muhlenberg College’s most recent poll for the Morning Call , which pegs Biden’s support level at 49% and Trump’s at 44%. 2016 election in PA Consider also that Muhlenberg’s final 2016 poll had Clinton up 48% to 42%, a six-point lead. Trump ended up winning the state by a little less than a point. The cross-tabs tell us why Muhlenberg was wrong: they found Trump only marginally leading males (45% to 43%), whites (49% to 42%), and independents (41% to 38%). The final results for these categories, per CNN exit polls , were 57% to 40%, 56% to 40%, and 48% to 41%, respectively. Thus, I am skeptical of some of the findings from Muhlenberg’s most recent poll, which shows that Trump’s lead is 49% to 43% among men and 52% to 44% among whites. Further, Muhlenberg has Trump ...
Read more

Ron Johnson Saves Taxpayers at Least $89 Billion

Image
By opposing a $1,200 check to each American and $500 for each dependent, Senator Ron Johnson (R., Wisconsin) pushed Congress toward a $600 check for each American making less than $75,000 and $600 for each dependent. In so doing, Johnson saved the taxpayer at least $89 billion. Ron Johnson ( Milwaukee Journal Sentinel ) Based on my calculations, there are at least 191,400,280 Americans making less than $75,000 a year, as there are 255,200,373 adults and 75% of income earners make less than $75,000 a year. Carrying over that 75% statistic, there are also at least 49,835,000 dependents (as there are 66,447,000 people under 18). These numbers are a bit low, as they yield a sum of 241,235,280—i.e., a cost of $144.74 billion after the Johnson intervention. The actual cost  of the handouts will be $166 billion. Prior to Johnson's intervention, the cost of the $600 checks to people making less than $75,000 a year would have been at least $229.68 billion (191.4 million times $1,200) an...
Read more