Does the Road to a GOP House Pass Through New Jersey?

The Monmouth University Polling Institute just released their latest poll of New Jersey. It shows President Donald Trump and GOP challengers to Cory Booker losing big, which is to be expected in such a deep-blue state. However, the poll shows the Republicans leading in the competitive congressional districts they will need to win in order to claw back their House majority.

While Democrats nominally lead 50-38% in the New Jersey generic ballot, this is a reduced margin compared to 2018, when they won 60-39%. More importantly for the Republicans, the Democrats are struggling outside of safe districts (i.e., districts that have little to no chance of flipping parties). Monmouth reports,

The race for New Jersey’s 12 U.S. House seats produces a more mixed outlook for Democrats. Statewide, the picture looks positive with 50% of voters saying they will back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 38% who will support the Republican. This margin is slightly narrower than a Monmouth University Poll conducted at this same point in the 2018 cycle. Democratic candidates held a statewide 19-point generic House vote advantage in April 2018 (54% to 35%), a margin that held into Election Day when Democrats won the cumulative statewide House vote by 21 points (60% to 39%). 
The warning sign for Democrats is that this difference from two years ago is primarily due to a shift in voter preferences in the state’s most competitive districts. Democrats have a solid 56% to 31% lead in the seven safest districts – including six held by a Democrat and one held by a Republican – which is nearly identical to their 27-point advantage in April 2018 (57% to 30%). However, voters are almost evenly divided between the Republican (46%) and Democratic (45%) candidates in the five most competitive districts (i.e., CDs 2, 3, 5, 7, 11). This time two years ago, Democrats held an aggregate 7- point edge in these districts (49% to 42%). In November 2018, Democrats ended up winning the cumulative safe seat vote in New Jersey by 33 points (66% to 33%) and the competitive seats by 9 points (54% to 45%).

Because of redistricting in North Carolina, it is inevitable that the Republicans will lose two seats in the Old North State. However, if the GOP can pick up a seat or two (or five) in New Jersey, they can compensate for their losses and attempt to make Kevin McCarthy speaker of the House.

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