The Genesis of the Coronavirus
There has been some debate in recent days over whether the coronavirus originated in China or whether it sprouted in Europe. The latter theory has been fueled by recent headlines such as this one from Spectrum News: "Coronavirus Hit NYC in February, Likely Came From Europe."
I did some digging for concretes on when and where the virus started. I found a story from The Guardian, which leans left but is (thankfully) divorced from the rancor of American politics. The writer, Graham Readfearn, walks us through several scientific studies. It appears that the scientific community has settled that the coronavirus started with bats. The next step is a subject of some controversy, but scientists believe that the coronavirus "jumped" from the bats to pangolins and, from there, to humans.
The Guardian says, "Analysis of the first 41 Covid-19 patients in medical journal the Lancet found that 27 of them had direct exposure to the Wuhan market. But the same analysis found that the first known case of the illness did not." I think that we can say that if 66% of the original 41 cases had "direct exposure" to an unregulated market in Wuhan, the coronavirus probably started there.
That the "first known case" did not start with the Wuhan market is a head-scratcher, but it is possible someone contracted the virus at the market, remained asymptomatic, and then coughed on so-called Patient Zero.
I also did some research into the theory that the virus started in Europe. I found a good New York Times article, which does suggest that the first strains of the virus in New York City can be attributed to European passengers. That being said, the first genomes on the West Coast are of the Chinese strain: "The Washington viruses also shared other mutations in common with ones isolated in Wuhan, suggesting that a traveler had brought the coronavirus from China."
I am not an M.D., but this makes me think the virus started in China and was spread to Europe by a visitor or European national who had spent time in China. This theory appears to bear out in reality, at least according to the Daily Beast: "An 80-year-old man visiting France from Hubei Province in China is Europe’s the [sic] first fatality from the deadly coronavirus. The tourist arrived in France on Jan. 16 and tested positive in a Paris hospital on Jan. 25."
Coincidentally, the Times piece mentions similar research as the piece from The Guardian. The Times reports, "The deepest branches of the [virus genome] tree all belong to lineages from China. The Nextstrain team has also used the mutation rate to determine that the virus probably first moved into humans from an animal host in late 2019. On Dec. 31, China announced that doctors in Wuhan were treating dozens of cases of a mysterious new respiratory illness."
One takeaway is not particularly Trump-friendly: The fact that the first strains in New York were European shows that we did not lock down travel from Europe, which had its first cases in late January, early enough. The other takeaway is more Trump-friendly: Locking down travel from China was in the national interest.
Some might ask the relevance of the coronavirus's origin. I would point out that China has had several viral outbreaks in the past two decades -- SARS, avian flu, swine flu/H1N1, and now coronavirus -- and it may be time for us to reconsider our trade and travel relationships with China. That is a question for our political leadership and not Declan at his computer on a Friday afternoon, but it appears that breaking from China (at least partially) is becoming an increasingly bipartisan proposition.
I did some digging for concretes on when and where the virus started. I found a story from The Guardian, which leans left but is (thankfully) divorced from the rancor of American politics. The writer, Graham Readfearn, walks us through several scientific studies. It appears that the scientific community has settled that the coronavirus started with bats. The next step is a subject of some controversy, but scientists believe that the coronavirus "jumped" from the bats to pangolins and, from there, to humans.
The Guardian says, "Analysis of the first 41 Covid-19 patients in medical journal the Lancet found that 27 of them had direct exposure to the Wuhan market. But the same analysis found that the first known case of the illness did not." I think that we can say that if 66% of the original 41 cases had "direct exposure" to an unregulated market in Wuhan, the coronavirus probably started there.
That the "first known case" did not start with the Wuhan market is a head-scratcher, but it is possible someone contracted the virus at the market, remained asymptomatic, and then coughed on so-called Patient Zero.
I also did some research into the theory that the virus started in Europe. I found a good New York Times article, which does suggest that the first strains of the virus in New York City can be attributed to European passengers. That being said, the first genomes on the West Coast are of the Chinese strain: "The Washington viruses also shared other mutations in common with ones isolated in Wuhan, suggesting that a traveler had brought the coronavirus from China."
I am not an M.D., but this makes me think the virus started in China and was spread to Europe by a visitor or European national who had spent time in China. This theory appears to bear out in reality, at least according to the Daily Beast: "An 80-year-old man visiting France from Hubei Province in China is Europe’s the [sic] first fatality from the deadly coronavirus. The tourist arrived in France on Jan. 16 and tested positive in a Paris hospital on Jan. 25."
Coincidentally, the Times piece mentions similar research as the piece from The Guardian. The Times reports, "The deepest branches of the [virus genome] tree all belong to lineages from China. The Nextstrain team has also used the mutation rate to determine that the virus probably first moved into humans from an animal host in late 2019. On Dec. 31, China announced that doctors in Wuhan were treating dozens of cases of a mysterious new respiratory illness."
One takeaway is not particularly Trump-friendly: The fact that the first strains in New York were European shows that we did not lock down travel from Europe, which had its first cases in late January, early enough. The other takeaway is more Trump-friendly: Locking down travel from China was in the national interest.
Some might ask the relevance of the coronavirus's origin. I would point out that China has had several viral outbreaks in the past two decades -- SARS, avian flu, swine flu/H1N1, and now coronavirus -- and it may be time for us to reconsider our trade and travel relationships with China. That is a question for our political leadership and not Declan at his computer on a Friday afternoon, but it appears that breaking from China (at least partially) is becoming an increasingly bipartisan proposition.
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