The Trump-Biden Enthusiasm Gap

Most polls indicate that President Donald Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in the national popular vote. The RealClearPolitics average shows that Biden would command 48.3% of the popular vote compared to 42.0% for Trump, a deficit of 6.3 points. However, enthusiasm levels are telling a different story.

In Emerson College's April poll, which shows Trump behind Biden by six points (48% for Biden to 42% for Trump), 64% of declared Trump voters are "very" or "extremely" enthusiastic about supporting the president's reelection bid. Only 45% of Biden's supporters say the same, and 55% count themselves "mildly" excited or not excited at all about the former vice president's candidacy. Only 37% of Trump voters count themselves "mildly" excited or unexcited.

Enthusiasm data from Emerson

Biden's numbers could be depressed by progressives within the Democratic Party, Emerson College reports: "65% of those who voted for Senator Bernie Sanders in the primary season said they were not that excited for Biden." Granted, Trump's fervent support among the GOP is four years in the making, whereas Biden has had less than two months to unite the Democratic base.

Rasmussen Reports polled voters on a different question, asking whether they were excited about the prospect of a Trump vs. Biden matchup, but found similar results as Emerson. Rasmussen notes, "Republicans (75%) are a lot more enthusiastic about a Trump-Biden matchup than Democrats (57%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (48%) are." Republicans are clearly more excited about the prospect of the president going up against Biden than Democrats are about the prospect of Biden challenging the president.

My take is that Biden is nominally favored by more of the population: This has been demonstrated by the data that have emanated since pollsters started testing head-to-head matchups. However, Trump may net more votes in key states because his base is much more excited to turn out on November 3rd.

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