What Are the N.C. Polls Telling Us?

My electoral map, which can be found here, pegs North Carolina as a "lean Republican" state. This prognostication is based primarily on the 2016 results: President Donald Trump won it then by 3.6 points, 49.8% to 46.2%, nearly clearing a majority. That is a landslide relative to Trump's razor-thin margins in other swing states (e.g., Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin).

However, it is important to use new data to ensure the accuracy of predictions. I have been keeping my eye on the polls, and two surveys just came out of the Old North State. One is from Public Policy Polling (PPP), which leans left, and the other is from Harper Polling, conducted for the right-leaning Civitas Institute.

In PPP's poll, Trump is down one: 48% for Biden and 47% for Trump. However, Trump's favorability rating is better than Biden's. 45% have a favorable impression of Trump compared to 50% who have an unfavorable perception (net -5). Biden is at 39% favorable and 50% unfavorable (net -11).

In Harper's poll, Trump is up seven: 49% for Trump and 42% for Biden. His job-approval rating clocks in at 52%.

The average of these two polls is 48% for Trump and 45% for Biden (Trump +3). Given this margin, Biden's poor favorability ratings, and the 2016 results, I am confident in saying Trump is favored to win N.C. on November 3rd.

In the gubernatorial race, Republican nominee Dan Forest trails Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper by double digits. Harper has him behind by 17 points, 50% to 33%, and PPP by 14, 50% to 36%. Cooper obviously has the advantage, but two factors must be considered: (1) Cooper is enjoying an approval-rating bump because of his handling of the coronavirus and (2) Forest is still unknown to most of the state. 27% have a favorable view of Forest, 27% have an unfavorable perception, and a plurality (46%) don't know.

It is possible that Forest makes himself a household name and closes the gap ahead of November 3rd, but this appears to be a "lean Democratic" race.

It is tougher to get a clear picture of the U.S. Senate race. In Harper's poll, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis is up four: 38% to 34%. In PPP's poll, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is up seven: 47% to 40%. The average of these surveys is 40.5% for Cunningham and 39% for Tillis.

Given the slight Democratic lean of N.C. Senate polls in both 2014 and 2016, Cunningham's marginal lead of 1.5 points is practically zero. The race is a tossup.

Civitas released the Harper poll with a good headline: "Are we headed for a 'status quo' election?" They seem to be onto something, though Tillis's reelection is not guaranteed.

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