A Close Race in Michigan

Those writing President Donald Trump’s political obituary assume that former Vice President Joe Biden will net a key swing state: Michigan. While a Democratic sweep of their 16 electoral votes would reduce Trump’s chances of victory, such an outcome is not predetermined and the state looks increasingly unpredictable.

The Trafalgar Group's Michigan results

Consider the most recent poll from the Trafalgar Group, which has Trump behind Biden by less than a point in the Wolverine State: Biden commands 46.2% of the vote to 45.3% for Trump. 4% are undecided and 4.5% will back a third-party candidate. While Biden nominally leads, the margin of error is 2.95%.

In other words, the Trafalgar Group poll informs us that the state will be closely fought either way. It will either be a Trump state by a narrow margin or a Biden state by a narrow margin. This is consistent with the latest poll from CNBC/Change Research, which has Biden up by two points, but it stands in stark contrast to Biden’s double-digit leads in other surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics.

The Trafalgar Group’s sample of 1,101 was 53.9% female and 46.1% male. This theoretically skews the results toward the Democrats as women are more likely than their male counterparts to support Biden. However, this skew was likely offset by the age distribution of the sample, which is predominantly 50-and-up (a demographic that has proved more favorable for the president).

The Trafalgar Group is a Republican-affiliated pollster. However, just as I am willing to take Public Policy Polling surveys at face value, I value the Trafalgar Group’s record of accuracy more than I discount them for their partisan leanings. In 2016, they were the only pollster cataloged by the RCP average to call Trump’s upset victory in Michigan. The Trafalgar Group had Trump up by two points; he won by 0.3 point.

The takeaway from the most recent Trafalgar Group survey is simple: Individual polls that predict a Biden landslide in Michigan are not the only data points available. It is important to consider them all -- not just the ones that fulfill preconceived notions about the election.

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