Cooper vs. Forest: The Sleeper Race That May Surprise

Cardinal Point Analytics, a Raleigh-N.C. based firm that had an excellent track record in 2016, released a new poll of the Old North State on Monday. They find President Donald Trump ahead by 0.9 point, which is consistent with other data that show N.C. as the 2020 swing state most favorable to the GOP. Conversely, incumbent U.S. Senator Thom Tillis -- a Republican -- trails his Democratic challenger by 3.1 points.

The poll's biggest surprise was its assessment of the gubernatorial race. Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican challenger Dan Forest, the lieutenant governor, by only 2.6 points. This is in stark contrast to the latest poll from East Carolina University, which had Cooper at 49% and Forest at 38%. However, it is consistent with Cooper's declining advantage in Public Policy Polling surveys (he is down to a nine-point lead from 13 in April) and the tied race indicated by Gravis Marketing.

Roy Cooper (left) & Dan Forest (right)

Granted, Cooper is marginally ahead, even in Cardinal Point's survey. But he is hardly where he was a few short months ago, when he led by a seemingly-unsurmountable 27 points (i.e., 57% to 30% for Forest) in WRAL-TV's poll. And he has not commanded a clear majority of the vote since East Carolina University pegged him at 51% in early May.

The open question is whether Cooper will continue to slip and hand Forest the governorship. At this rate, such an outcome is very possible. RealClearPolitics is smart to peg the race as a tossup.

In other news, Cardinal Point has the GOP up in the races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, and insurance commissioner. The Democratic incumbent, Elaine Marshall, leads her Republican challenger, E.C. Sykes, in the secretary-of-state contest.

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