The Shifting Electoral Winds

Today, I launched my electoral forecast on my main website, FDL Review. After extensive data collection and hours of calculations, I arrived the following electoral tally: 219 votes for former Vice President Joe Biden, 205 for President Donald Trump, and 114 "tossups." After assigning the tossup states to the candidates nominally leading in each of them, Biden comes out with a slight lead: 297 to 241. However, this apparent advantage obscures the fact that the 2020 race is really a 50/50 contest.

Seven months ago, it looked like Trump would win in a landslide. Two months ago, it looked like he would lose in a landslide. Now, the outcome is far less obvious and the momentum is with Trump.

Nate Silver's model—which is admittedly much more advanced than FDL Review's—gives Trump a 30% chance of victory, up from 21% on June 29th. Silver said that the forecast would shift away from Trump over time because of the corresponding decline in uncertainty, unless Trump improved his standing. Now, the forecast's header notes, "Biden is slightly favored to win the election."

Several recent polls show that Biden is within the margin of error in the national popular vote, which Trump is widely expected to lose. Rasmussen Reports, which leans Republican, gives Biden a one-point advantage; CNN polling has him up by four. Granted, the RealClearPolitics average pegs Biden's lead at seven points: 49.5% to 42.5%.

Biden is underperforming 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the RCP average of battleground states. Further, he does not command a majority of the vote in any of the states that RCP identifies as battlegrounds, and his numbers recently dropped in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (Biden did see an improvement in North Carolina, where he is tied with Trump.)

Finally, as I noted last week, Trump is rapidly improving his standing in the betting odds. Then, I wrote, "[T]he election is a coin toss. The people who put their money where their mouth is—political bettors—are approaching this point of view: The president's odds improved from 36.4% on August 1st to 41.7% today." Now, the betting odds Trump give a 45.0% chance of victory. Here are the data, courtesy of RCP:



It remains to be seen whether the ongoing Republican National Convention will contribute to Trump's momentum. Either way, after a rough summer, Trump is back in the driver's seat.

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