Trump Improves Standing in Battleground States

Four years ago, then-Republican nominee Donald Trump trailed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 5.3 points in the battleground states and by 4.3 points in the national popular vote. Now, President Trump is behind by 7.6 in the popular vote but only by 4.2 in the battlegrounds.

The candidates (Milwaukee Magazine)

In other words, the difference between national performance and battleground-state performance grew from negative one point to positive 3.4 points over the course of four years. Considering that Trump is trailing in the national popular vote, this is good news for his campaign.

If these numbers hold, Trump could prevail in the Electoral College even if he loses the popular vote by five points or more. Count Trump out at your own peril.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Anatomy of a Biased Poll

Image
YouGov, CBS News's pollster of choice, released a poll showing that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 10 points: 52% to 42%. Their sample consisted of 957 registered voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 3.6 points. According to YouGov, Trump leads Biden by 10 points (47% to 37%) among independents and by 88 points (93% to 5%) among Republicans. So, why is he behind by 10 points overall? The sample—i.e., the group of people that YouGov polled—was roughly 41% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 27% independent. Compare YouGov's sample to the actual breakdown of the electorate: 41% independent, 31% Democratic, and 26% Republican. YouGov's numbers, when adjusted to fit reality, indicate a much tighter race: 45.9% Biden to 44.4% Trump (my math is below). President Donald Trump The massive over-representation of Democrats in YouGov's sample is a textbook example of why conservatives and impartial observers reflexively discount public-opinion...
Read more

Trump Favored in Pennsylvania

Image
The RealClearPolitics polling average in Pennsylvania is Biden +3.7, with polls ranging from Trump +2 (InsiderAdvantage) to Biden +7 (Quinnipiac). I predict that President Donald Trump will narrowly win the state. Consider Muhlenberg College’s most recent poll for the Morning Call , which pegs Biden’s support level at 49% and Trump’s at 44%. 2016 election in PA Consider also that Muhlenberg’s final 2016 poll had Clinton up 48% to 42%, a six-point lead. Trump ended up winning the state by a little less than a point. The cross-tabs tell us why Muhlenberg was wrong: they found Trump only marginally leading males (45% to 43%), whites (49% to 42%), and independents (41% to 38%). The final results for these categories, per CNN exit polls , were 57% to 40%, 56% to 40%, and 48% to 41%, respectively. Thus, I am skeptical of some of the findings from Muhlenberg’s most recent poll, which shows that Trump’s lead is 49% to 43% among men and 52% to 44% among whites. Further, Muhlenberg has Trump ...
Read more

Ron Johnson Saves Taxpayers at Least $89 Billion

Image
By opposing a $1,200 check to each American and $500 for each dependent, Senator Ron Johnson (R., Wisconsin) pushed Congress toward a $600 check for each American making less than $75,000 and $600 for each dependent. In so doing, Johnson saved the taxpayer at least $89 billion. Ron Johnson ( Milwaukee Journal Sentinel ) Based on my calculations, there are at least 191,400,280 Americans making less than $75,000 a year, as there are 255,200,373 adults and 75% of income earners make less than $75,000 a year. Carrying over that 75% statistic, there are also at least 49,835,000 dependents (as there are 66,447,000 people under 18). These numbers are a bit low, as they yield a sum of 241,235,280—i.e., a cost of $144.74 billion after the Johnson intervention. The actual cost  of the handouts will be $166 billion. Prior to Johnson's intervention, the cost of the $600 checks to people making less than $75,000 a year would have been at least $229.68 billion (191.4 million times $1,200) an...
Read more