Democratic House Majority Teeters

In the 2020 election for the United States House, the Democrats won 222 seats and the Republicans 212. The representative for New York's 22nd district remains undecided, with Republican nominee and former Congresswoman Claudia Tenney ahead by just 12 votes.

From the Cook Political Report

Since the Democrats won more than 218 seats (the majority threshold), they are strictly the majority party in the House. However, they are precariously shedding members from their ranks, as President-elect Joe Biden appointed three Democratic congresspeople—Marcia Fudge of Ohio, Deb Haaland of New Mexico, and Cedric Richmond of Louisiana—to posts within his administration.

If Tenney ends up winning in New York, the Democratic majority would plunge to just 219 seats, putting them within a couple of seats of being a plurality party. Biden would then have to think long and hard about appointing any more House members absent the intervention of special elections, which are certain to return Democrats to replace Fudge and Richmond.

Haaland's seat in New Mexico is considerably less safe for the Democrats. Some are promoting Republican weatherman Mark Ronchetti as a candidate potentially capable of pulling off an upset, as he recently managed a closer-than-expected race for the Senate in an increasingly Democratic state.

Once the dust settles, the Republicans may end up with 214 seats ahead of the 2022 elections, which bettors believe will mint Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Democrats can concede preciously little slack if they wish to remain the majority party.

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